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Back in 1999, during the Kargil conflict—which ended with Pakistan pulling back under international pressure—India’s economy still managed to grow by 6.8%, surpassing most forecasts, including those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Looking over the long history of tensions and conflicts between the two nations, one theme stands out: India’s economic resilience. While markets have experienced sharp swings, heightened volatility, and temporary wealth erosion during such times, the broader economic story has often ended on a strong note.
Today, we find ourselves in a similarly tense situation. The brutal terror attack on civilians in Kashmir’s Pahalgam area, followed by India’s retaliatory strikes on terror camps across the border and in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, has significantly escalated tensions. As of this writing, several airports have been shut, border states in the north and west are on high alert, and cross-border shelling continues.
We want to pause here and acknowledge that discussing financial markets during such a grave situation can seem cold, especially when lives are at risk. But we hold to the belief that the strength and progress of a country’s economy play a crucial role in securing the future of its people—and that in today’s world, conflicts are no longer confined to the battlefield alone